How Tariffs, Inflation, and Mortgage Rates Could Shape Your Next Real Estate Decision.

August is already here and can you believe it? It feels like summer just started, yet we are already heading into the season where the market shifts gears. While the Arizona heat is predictable, the economy right now is anything but. One of the biggest storylines this month is the quiet but important impact of tariffs on prices, inflation, and ultimately, real estate.

You might be wondering what tariffs have to do with selling a property in probate, managing an estate, or advising clients on major financial decisions. The answer is more than you think.

When tariffs go up, the cost of certain imported goods often follows. In July, we saw some categories such as home furnishings and vehicles edge higher in price. Those may seem like small details, but they can directly affect what it costs to prepare a home for sale, furnish a vacant property, or even help an heir move across the country. Surprisingly, other tariff-affected goods such as apparel actually dropped in price as businesses decided to absorb the extra cost rather than pass it along to consumers.

On the surface, July’s inflation numbers did not set off alarms. Overall inflation held steady at 2.7 percent while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in slightly higher at 3.1 percent. These small shifts matter because they influence what the Federal Reserve does next. Right now the Fed is keeping the door open for a possible rate cut in September if inflation stays in check.

Why does that matter to us in real estate? Interest rates affect buying power. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, nudged up just enough to keep the 30-year fixed hovering around the 6.8 percent range. A rate cut could help ease borrowing costs for buyers this fall which means more purchasing power in the market. For estate sales or probate properties, that could mean a larger pool of qualified buyers and potentially stronger offers.

If you work in probate, trust administration, or any role where timing and asset value matter, these economic signals are worth watching. Rising costs in certain categories could affect net proceeds. Shifts in interest rates could change how quickly a property sells or how aggressively buyers compete.

The reality is that tariffs are not just an abstract economic headline. They ripple through every corner of the market, shaping costs, influencing buyer behavior, and ultimately impacting the value and timing of property sales.

Whether you are managing an estate, selling a family home, or planning your next investment, understanding these shifts is key to making confident and strategic decisions. As we move toward September, I will continue tracking every change so you have the insight you need to