Single Family Home Prices Remain Stable Year-Over-Year. Rates Decline Again in April.

April is coming to an end, May is right around the corner, and you can already feel how quickly, we’re about to move into summer, which, if you’ve been around real estate long enough, you know is when everything starts to feel a little more real, a little more active, and a lot more intentional.

This is usually the point in the year where the casual conversations start turning into serious ones, where people who have been quietly watching the market begin to lean in, ask more questions, and really try to understand if now is the right time for them to make a move.

And lately, there has been a lot to take in.

Over the past few weeks, mortgage rates moved up pretty quickly, and you could feel the shift almost immediately, not in some dramatic headline kind of way, but in the way buyers started to slow down, take a step back, and give themselves a little more time before making a decision, especially with so much uncertainty in the background.

For a moment, it felt like we might be heading into another one of those unpredictable stretches.

But what’s interesting, and honestly more telling, is how quickly that feeling passed and how the market responded without overreacting.

For Buyers

March was an eventful month as rates spiked from 5.99% to 6.64% per Mortgage News Daily. The spike was a direct response to uncertainty over the Iran war and its affect on U.S. inflation. Once the unemployment report was released showing an improvement from 4.4% to 4.3%, rates began drifting back down. By the time the CPI inflation was released at 3.3%, up from 2.4%, it had already been priced into the rates so there was little effect. As of mid-April, rates were back to 6.3% and trending down.

The effect of the rate disruption was a decline in buyer contract activity, in March they were up 10% and in April up just 1%. Contracts could begin to return as rates fall below 6.25%. The lesson buyers have learned over the past 3 years of volatile mortgage rates is patience. Rates have a recent history of knee-jerk spikes in times of unexpected uncertainty (i.e. tariffs, trade through the Strait of Hormuz), and declines after the shock wears off.

The increase in supply seen in January and February stalled in March and now in April as well. In February supply was up 9% over last year. In March supply was only up 4.8% and in April it is barely up 0.2% thus far. With both contract and listing activity stalled, they have cancelled each other out, thus maintaining the status quo for home prices.

While the conflict with Iran is not settled, the markets are responding as if they expect it to be a short-term influence on inflation. If that proves to be true, then there will be little impact on home values as they typically take 3-6 months to respond to a prolonged disturbance in the force. Since September 2022, the median mortgage rate is 6.89%. This puts the current 6.3% mortgage rate well on the low side of the last 3.5 years.

For Sellers

Sellers have the least advantage in the condominium market under $300K as supply is up 20% over last year and contracts in escrow up only 13%. April sold prices are down 9.5% from last year in this segment with the median size sold at 1,048sqft, historically prices for this segment are similar to where they were 5 years ago around May 2021. Conversely, Single family homes between 1,200-2,400sqft have shown the most stability in prices over the past 3 years with minimal fluctuation.

The median sized single family home sold in Greater Phoenix this year is 2,003sqft, which is 318sqft bigger than 2001’s median of 1,685sqft, 25 years ago. Typical home sizes vary based on city, which is reflected in their median sales prices. For example the 2026 median sized home sold in the city of Phoenix is 1,798sqft and the median price is $482K. Compare that to a newer cities like Chandler where the median size is 2,061sqft at $558K and Queen Creek at 2,659sqft and $688K. Below are the median sales prices by year for the following single family size ranges in Greater Phoenix. They show that while the Valley has endured a buyer’s market since November 2024, price trends are within 1% of last year’s prices for the majority of common-sized homes:

As we move into May and head toward the summer months, the market isn’t telling a story of big swings or sudden changes, but rather one of quiet stability, where both buyers and sellers are adjusting in real time without forcing anything.

Buyers are still active, just more thoughtful and patient in how they approach their decisions, and sellers, especially in the single family space, are continuing to see that well positioned homes are holding their value without needing to chase unrealistic expectations.

And while that might not sound exciting at first, it actually says a lot about the strength of the market right now.

Because this is the kind of environment where clarity starts to matter more than timing, where understanding what is actually happening gives you an advantage over simply reacting to headlines, and where the best opportunities tend to show up for the people who are paying attention early rather than waiting for something dramatic to force their hand.

And as we step into one of the busiest seasons of the year, that’s really the part worth paying attention to.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report | ©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC